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2004 Minor League Draft Review
A Look Back At The Inaugural Minor League Draft
By Jayson Snark / EHSPN.com
It’s been almost 3 full years since the inaugural EHCC Minor League Draft in the Spring of 2004, and it seems like a fair enough amount of time has passed to evaluate the successfulness—or lack thereof—of each team’s draft. Only 10 teams participated, to varying results, in what has become one of the most looked-forward to events in the EHCC season. The minor league draft is a great opportunity for teams looking to rebuild from within to load up on blue chip talent before it gets opened up to the free for all that is the EHCC waiver wire. So which teams took the most advantage of the system from the beginning and which wasted a premium opportunity?
Before we establish that, a quick note on my method of evaluation. If a team drafted at least one player who is now a solid fantasy contributor at the major league level, they can do no worse than a C+. Also, as there are no records of what player was selected in which round or which draft slot (e.g. 1st round, 3rd overall pick), teams will be evaluated strictly on how the players they drafted performed with no thought given to their value relative to when they were selected. Also, grades were not influenced by subsequent trades that may have involved minor leaguers. For example, Las Vegas is not penalized in their grade for trading Felix Hernandez before he ever pitched an inning for their club, and Rakeville’s grade is not aided by their trade for Hernandez. The selections stand alone. With that said, here are the official grades for the 2004 minor league draft:
Quebec City Piglets
Selections:
SP Scott Kazmir
2B Josh Barfield
Grade: B
GM Pat Renaud did a great job in selecting Scott Kazmir, who is widely recognized as one of the top young starting pitchers in the game today. The choice of Kazmir paid almost immediate dividends as well, as Kazmir was traded to the pitching thin Tampa Bay Devil Rays shortly after his selection in the EHCC draft, and was called up later that year by the parent club. He got the call from Quebec City shortly thereafter, where he was inconsistent, but brilliant at times. Kazmir has developed into a frontline starter in the EHCC, racking up high K numbers with a very good ERA. He has also harnessed earlier control problems to post a very good WHIP as well. He’s turned out to be everything the Piglets hoped he would be, although his small stature leads him to still be something of an injury risk, as his shoulder injury late in August has shown. Still, a very good pick by the Piglets.
Second baseman Josh Barfield, on the other hand, was a solid pick, but not spectacular. His choice was a classic example of why you draft for talent and not needs in a minor league draft. While Renaud was looking for a talented young 2nd Baseman to replace the aging Jeff Kent—which he found in Barfield—he ignored a host of other more talented players at lesser positions. However, Barfield posted solid numbers in his first full season, and was recently added to the Piglet’s post-season roster as well, giving him a taste of the big leagues. Barfield should be a fixture in the Piglet infield for years to come, making his selection a good—but far from great—choice.
Las Vegas Doggs
Selections:
SP Matt Cain
SP Felix Hernandez
Grade: A
Las Vegas did their homework prior to the draft and it paid off in a big way with these two selections. Both Hernandez and Cain have impressed at the major league level, helping both of their current teams reach the postseason this year and posting very solid numbers relative to their age. Both players struck out over 170 batters in their first full season and provided very solid WHIPs and ERAs. Both players also figure to anchor two of the more prominent pitching staffs in the EHCC for a long, long time. Unfortunately for Las Vegas, neither of those staffs will be theirs, as they traded Hernandez and Cain before either could make a significant contribution to their parent club.
Rakeville Rockets
Selections:
OF Delmon Young
3B David Wright
Grade: A-
Rakeville also did a great job in scouting prior to the ’04 draft, getting two of the best position prospects available. David Wright began contributing almost immediately and has become one of the best young 3rd basemen in the game today. He has posted a batting average over .300 in both of his full seasons in the EHCC, as well as 100+ RBIs and at least 25 home runs in each of his first two seasons, while also contributing a total of 37 stolen bases combined in those 2 years. Wright has blossomed into a 5 tool fantasy stud and Rakeville deserves accolades for their selection. Wright’s brilliant rookie season earned him near unanimous EHCC Rookie of the Year honors and he’s clearly positioned as a star for years to come.
Delmon Young is still widely considered the best prospect in baseball, although his reputation took a bit of hit earlier when he was suspended for 50 games from the minor leagues for throwing a bat at an umpire. Personality issues aside, Young is still considered a 5 tool fantasy star and has performed well in a brief appearance in the majors at the end of the ’06 season. If and when Young is called up to the major league club for good, this grade will no doubt be raised to an A+ assuming Young performs anywhere near the production level expected of him. For now though, since there is still some uncertainty, Rakeville will have to settle for a solid A- and the knowledge that this could very well be the best draft in EHCC history.
Bridgewater Weasels
Selections:
1B Ryan Howard
RP Jairo Garcia
Grade: B+
Bridgewater hit a homerun nearly the length of one of their burly first baseman’s bombs at the 2006 All-Star Game with this selection. Ryan Howard has quickly gone from interesting young player to the 2006 NL MVP (pending) in about the time it takes for one of his homeruns to land. Howard exploded onto the scene last year, winning the National League Rookie of the Year award in about a half-season’s worth of playing time, and then upped the ante this past season by belting 58 homeruns and 146 RBIs at press time. Howard has been phenomenal and, with Lance Berkman, has carried the Bridgewater offense all year long.
The outstanding choice of Howard more than makes up for the disastrous selection of Jairo Garcia…if that is his real name. Which it isn’t. “Jairo” went from being an intriguing 23 year old prospect named Garcia to an almost-washed-up-for-the-minors player named Santiago Casilla when it was discovered that he’d used fake documents to gain entry into the country. Casilla has done nothing at the major league level and will likely be cut rather than added to the Bridgewater roster when his 3 year minor league contract expires next year, making his selection a textbook example of the risk teams run when drafting players of dubious background.
Weymouth Shaddupu
Selections:
SP Clint Everts
SP Jeff Francis
Grade: C+
If Bridgewater’s draft taught us the risk involved in drafting foreign players with dubious backgrounds, Weymouth’s draft taught us the risk involved in selecting starting pitching. While Las Vegas made the same gamble and saw it pay off, Weymouth wasn’t nearly so fortunate. While Jeff Francis has turned out okay, posting something of a breakout year in 2006 after 1 ½ seasons in the majors, Everts has been a complete bust, hurting his pitching elbow in ’04 and eventually undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, causing him to miss the better portion of his career with the Rock ‘N’ Fire. Since coming back from surgery he simply hasn’t been the same, posting an ERA of 6.00 in 2006 in High A ball. He’ll almost certainly be cut by the Shaddupu when his contract expires later this year.
Francis, as mentioned earlier, has panned out much better, although even he has to be considered something of a disappointment to GM Yukon Cornelius. Francis represents another general rule of thumb for the minor league draft—don’t draft pitchers whose home games come at Coors Field. Francis struggled mightily in his first full season as a Shaddupu, posting an ERA of 5.68 and a WHIP of 1.62 to go along with a .311 opponent’s batting average against as well as a pretty mediocre 128 strikeouts. His only saving grace was a fluky 14 wins. This year has shown significant improvements from Francis, as he saw his ERA improve to 4.02 and his WHIP lower to 1.29 at press time. While his Ks have not improved much (114), he did post 13 wins and threw a shutout earlier in the season. With the conditions for pitchers much improved this year at Coors Field thanks to the infamous humidor, Francis may yet turn into a staff anchor for the Shaddupu, which would make this draft a minor success for the most decorated team in the EHCC.
Bizton Markies
Selections:
SP Joe Blanton
SS/3B B.J. Upton
Grade: B
This Bizton draft has been something of a roller-coaster ride for the franchise. While the choice of B.J. Upton was roundly praised by GMs throughout the league, Upton has shown considerably regression as a prospect since that draft. His inability to handle the defensive pressures of shortstop at the major league level have led to his move to third base, which has also been something of a defensive adventure for Upton and could necessitate a future move to the outfield for Upton. This would actually be a welcome change for the Markies as they currently have a logjam at third base and could use a speedy outfielder. However, as Upton has languished in the minors for almost 2 years since his initial call-up to Bizton, some of the luster has been taken off his prospect shine.
Blanton’s major league career has similarly been a roller coaster. After getting the call to join the Oakland rotation last year, Blanton struggled early on before righting himself and putting up very solid numbers in every major category, save strikeouts. He finished his first full year with a solid 12 wins to go along with a very good ERA of 3.53 and a WHIP of 1.22. Blanton has regressed quite a bit in his second full year in the EHCC, seeing his ERA rise to 4.84 and his WHIP jump up to a frightening 1.54. None of this was Bizton’s problem though, as they wisely sold high on Blanton last year in a trade that netted them Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee. Unfortunately, Bizton stupidly traded away Soriano before his career year this past season, and has continued to run his team into the ground in every aspect since that trade. However, based solely on this draft, Markie management made solid choices and were able to secure 2 very good players in their inaugural draft.
Golden Gryphons
Selections:
OF Jeff Francoeur
RP Merkin Valdez
Grade: B
Golden had a decent draft based on the success of one of their picks, or in spite of the other, depending on your point of view. Jeff Francoeur came on very strong out of the gates as a rookie last year, belting 14 homers and 45 RBIs in only 257 at bats last year, and also posting a surprising .300 average. Francoeur came back down to Earth in 2006 though, seeing his average plummet nearly 50 points to .259 and enduring a number of slumps that made him something of a risky fantasy play at times. However, despite his struggles, he did manage 28 homeruns and 102 RBIs while also scoring a solid 82 runs, proving he should continue to be, at worst, a useful fantasy player for years to come.
Merkin Valdez, on the other hand, has shown nothing to indicate that he will ever contribute to the Gryphon pitching staff. A promising youngster with a good fastball when he was drafted, Valdez just hasn’t materialized quickly enough or shown enough promise at higher levels of the minors to justify holding a roster spot for him in 2007. He projects as a middle reliever or perhaps a closer down the line if all goes well, but this will likely not be the case for at least year or two. Golden has shown that their window of opportunity to contend for the title is now, and it doesn’t make sense for them to wait around for Valdez. He’ll likely be cut when his contract expires in 2007, making this a wasted pick for the Gryphon organization. It is also a cautionary tale for future draft picks, showing that it just doesn’t make sense to use a minor league draft pick on a potential closer, as it is such a volatile position in fantasy sports.
Tijuana Hispanics
Selections:
SP Dan Haren
2B Brian Dallimore
Grade: B
Continuing our theme of one very good pick and one terrible pick is Tijuana. The Hispanics made an outstanding selection in Dan Haren, a hard throwing starter who is now the anchor of the A’s rotation. Haren burst onto the scene last year winning 14 games while maintaining an ERA of 3.73 and a WHIP of 1.22 while also striking out an impressive 163. Haren’s stats have taken a slight hit this year, as his ERA rose to 4.11, but this is actually a bit misleading, as his WHIP has actually dropped to 1.20. Haren’s ERA is unjustly inflated due to a few very bad starts along the way. In general though, he has been a very solid pitcher since joining the EHCC. Sadly, in a move that would be indicative of many Tijuana decisions down the road, they traded Haren to Weymouth prior to the 2005 season for a 4th round pick that turned into Vincente Padilla (who was later cut), and did not reap any of the benefits of this very solid pick.
Brian Dallimore was a complete and utter disaster for Tijuana. I’d never heard of him at the time and have not since. I looked him up just to make sure he was a real player, however, (he was—sort of), and it turns out that he’s a 33 year old utility infielder who was drafted and cut by the Houston Astros, migrated to San Francisco where he played sparingly for 2 years, and was acquired by Milwaukee this past season, for whom he has yet to play. On the bright side, he’s only managed 50 total at bats in his entire career, so Tijuana doesn’t have to add him to the roster until his contract expires. So that’s good.
Tokyo Omyoujis
Selections:
1B Prince Fielder
3B Andy Marte
Grade: B+
This was a pretty solid draft for the Omyoujis, as both selections are now contributors at the major league level and look poised to be very good players down the road. In fact, Prince Fielder is already in that category. Fielder enjoyed a very productive rookie year this season by hitting .271 with 26 homeruns and 78 RBIs in a weak lineup. He even contributed a somewhat surprising 7 stolen bases for the ‘youjis. Fielder has a great pedigree (his father was former Detroit slugger Cecil Fielder) and seems poised for a Ryan Howard-type breakout next year.
Marte was actually considered the better of the two prospects at the time both were drafted, but has seen his stock fall a bit this past season, largely through no fault of his own. He was shockingly traded by not one, but two MLB clubs over the Winter, leading some to believe that maybe Marte wasn’t worth the hype he received when he was named Baseball Prospectus’ number 1 overall prospect prior to 2005. However, Marte put together a solid—if unspectacular—year in the minors before getting the call to join the big league club. While he’s struggled a bit in his first major league action, Marte still looks to be at least a solid major leaguer with 25 homerun power down the line, making this a very successful draft for the Omyoujis.
Winston-Salem Green Monsters
Selections:
SS Aaron Hill
SP Tim Stauffer
Grade: D+
We conclude with what was probably the worst draft in 2004 as Winston-Salem didn’t get anybody who could help their ballclub. Hill has turned into a halfway decent utility player for the Toronto Blue Jays, but was cut Winston-Salem and went unclaimed by any other team for the duration of 2006. His numbers are pretty lackluster all around, with only a .292 batting average a saving grace. He’s pretty much useless for fantasy purposes and his failure in Winston-Salem prompted the franchise to take another stab at a shortstop in the ’05 minor league draft (a stab that worked out much, much better).
Tim Stauffer looks destined for a career as a journeyman soft-tosser in the mold of Mark Redman. He may have a few useful years here and there, but he’s been hampered by injuries so far in his career and, save a few decent starts, hasn’t offered much in the way of fantasy value. He too, has been cut by Winston-Salem, and was demoted to the minors by his MLB parent club, the Padres. He might be a sleeper down the road, but for now he can safely be qualified as a bust.
Conclusion:
The inaugural minor league draft proved to be something of a mixed bag in for its participants. While most teams came away with at least something worthwhile, it was more solid doubles or triples than grand slams. Maybe the draft isn’t as useful as people thought it would be, maybe the participants didn’t do their homework as well as they could have, or maybe it’s simply more risky to draft unproven minor leaguers. In any event, the draft proved exciting and added a new dimension to the EHCC, and should provide interest and intrigue to the league—if not can’t miss players—for years to come.
Jayson Snark writes for EHSPN.com. His interest in minor league baseball goes well beyond Independent League players, but due to a court order, those files have been locked.
