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Toss Up
A look ahead... to 2009?
By Rey Bingo, Athrun Zala and Conor Intabedd / EHSPN.com
1) Better off-season trade: 4th Round DP for Greg Maddux (LV/GLD) or 2nd Round DP for Jonathan Papelbon (TIJ/TKO)
Rey Bingo: On January 2, RP Keith Foulke was traded for the 4th round Major League QC pick. A little over a month later SP Greg Maddux was traded for the same exact pick. Essentially, this says that Maddux and Foulke would hold the same value. Would you be willing to deal Maddux for Foulke straight up? Consider the numbers. Foulke so far this season as a lowly setup man has an ERA of 3.71, with no saves, and a 2-1 record. Take into account he is coming off one of his worst seasons of his career as well. His 2005 numbers, an era over 5, 15 saves, and opponents slugged .500 off of him. Maddux on the other hand is off to the hottest start of his career. He's 5-0, a 1.35 ERA, and in true Maddux fashion has a 4:1 k/bb ratio. Maddux too came into this year following one of his worst seasons. His however was still above average. Maddux won 13 games while having a 4.24 ERA. I'd certainly take those "poor" numbers any day over Foulke's. But does that mean he came at a better bargain that Papelbon? Absolutely not. Tokyo's decision to move Papelbon is one I am left scratching my head to. Tokyo is in a rebuilding mode. So why would you trade a 25 year old fireballer? Sure, nobody knew that he would be the closer, a dominant closer at that. But everybody knows that at some point this year, or start next year this youngster is going to break into the rotation. I think to get Papelbon this young, and with this much promise for only a 2nd round pick will prove to be a steal. A few years down the road when Tokyo is scratching for a championship they should be thinking about how this trade affected them. Papelbon will be a 15 game, 225+ strikeout guy by 2009. To be building for the future and deal him makes no sense. However, Tokyo's mistake is certainly Tijuana's gain. Tijuana, who will compete for a bottom playoff seed will now benefit this year from his saves and in the future when he becomes their ace. Tijuana's acquisition of Papelbon is certainly the best off-season move.
Athrun Zala: Maddux for a 4th was the best deal of the off-season. So far he has been an ace. The cost of Maddux is what makes it the better deal. If the Doggs traded a 2nd for Maddux it would be a much different story. Then again if you're Weymouth you probably wish you'd traded both of your first rounders for either guy.
Conor Intabedd: I'd have to go with Maddux on this one for two reasons. First off he's a starting pitcher, contributing to 4 categories rather than 2 or 3. Second of all it took a 4th round pick to "pry" Maddux away from GLD. I talked with GM Howe Dogg and he basically told me the conversation went like this: "Who can I get for a 4th round pick?" "Maddux or Hillenbrand". It was a no brainer from there. The Doggs had an open spot on their roster and Maddux was better than anyone they could possibly think of getting in the 4th round.
2) Bigger 1st round draft bust: Aaron Heilman or Ryan Madson
Rey Bingo: Unfortunately for Weymouth, two of the biggest busts in this years draft were both taken by the Shaddupu. With both players being taken by the same team it makes it that much harder to decide which player was the biggest bust. At this point in the season I'd be more inclined to call Madson the bigger bust. He has been given his shot in the Phillies rotation only to reward them with an 8.05 ERA, and allowing more BB then K's. Heilman on the other hand has fallen victim to playing with too many good arms. He is pitching stellar out of the bullpen, an ERA of 2.63 and sporting an almost 3:1 K/BB ration. Madson is on the fast track out of the Phillies rotation, while Heilman will eventually find his way into the Mets. Have it be an injury or struggles by fellow youngster Brian Bannister, Heilman will finish the season as the Mets #5 starter. Rebuilding teams should watch for either of these guys in Free Agency as they are both very young, and show very high promise. Both will find their rhythm and be productive starters, even if it isn't this season.
Athrun Zala: Madson, he's been terrible. I still believe Heilman will be a good player, he just wasn't a first round choice.
Conor Intabedd: Heilman's been overrated all off-season, but he's still better than Madson has ended up being thus far. I think Madson has a better shot of holding a rotation spot for a longer period of time however since the Mets will probably make a trade to get another big time starter this year, keeping Heilman in the bullpen, where he's probably better suited anyway.
3) Better long term Free Agent pick-up: Brian Bannister (LV) or Nick Swisher (GLD)
Rey Bingo: With both 25 year olds off to hot starts this season, you have to believe that the hitter is the safest pick here. Swisher is playing in a market with little pressure and has a talented line up around him. He's already mashed 9 HR while maintaining an average above .300. Swisher is a mainstay in the Oakland lineup. Bannister on the other hand is surprising many with his quick start, but will it keep up? My opinion, not a chance. Somewhere along the road Bannister is going to put up a few bad outings in a row and get pulled from the rotation. It’s a matter of time until Heilman enters the rotation and Bannister is banished to the bullpen. Swisher is definitely the better long term signing.
Athrun Zala: Bannister will be better long term. I have no confidence in Swisher forcing himself into a roster for a full season. Bannister looks to be a capable end of the rotation starter for a team that will rack up the wins.
Conor Intabedd: Nick Swisher has the better shot here of being a better player. With Dan Johnson sucking to start the season he doesn't have anyone to compete with while Bannister, with one or two bad starts could be pushed to the bullpen for Heilman, a minor leaguer, or a new pitcher brought in through a future trade not to mention Bannister's BB/K is pretty bad. I'd venture to guess Swisher is the better pick-up.
4) Who would be a bigger 2006 playoff contender: A well-managed BIZ or a well-managed BYE
Rey Bingo: Injuries pushed aside, there is no doubt that Bizton should be a playoff contender. Both teams have some very nice pieces to them, but if Bizton was able to find management more dedicated to winning right now I feel like they'd have the roster to do so. Their current offense is struggling mightily, but with several empty roster spots the management should sign a few FA who can fill in until Bizton's stars start hitting. Their pitching is where BIZ should hang their hat. With three potential 15 game winners (Pettitte, Sabathia, and Colon) the only thing holding them back are injuries. Sabathia will be back this week and will add an instant shot to all pitching categories. Bizton also brought in youngster, Chris Young who should end up being a very solid pitcher in San Diego's ballpark. Their closers are questionable, as Foulke is stuck setting up. Wickman's aging, and Baez's shelf life is going to expire as soon as Gagne is back. If Bizton can fix their image and their apparent chemistry issues in the clubhouse, Bizton could surprise some people. However it appears that until there is a regime change the outlook will remain grim.
Athrun Zala: BYE WEEK, without a doubt. BYE WEEK has some good players. At least BYE WEEK doesn't attempt to trade themselves into last place with every deal they make. Upton is slowly losing his value as he can't seem to stick at an infield position. If he could then new Bizton management could trade him for a shot at 2006 contention.
Conor Intabedd: If you asked me this a year ago I might have said Bizton without a doubt. As it stands, the second team to occupy the city of Bye has more talented players and a few players other teams would love to have and wouldn't mind giving up some decent talent to acquire them. A well managed Bye Week would make the playoffs and possibly make a run at the title this year or next, where the mistakes of Bizton have left them on the outside looking in this year,, whether they're well managed or not.
5) Better chance at the 2009 title: QC or TKO
Rey Bingo: Both QC and TKO have made huge steps in assuring themselves competitive ballclubs in the future. As each roster sits right now I'd say Tokyo is in better position to be a champion by 2009. In three years D-Train will be out of Florida and playing for a championship caliber team, McCarthy will be a solid #2 or 3 in the White Sox rotation. The offense should also mature in the next few years. Francouer will bounce back to be a solid ML hitter, Encarnacion will thrive in Cincinnati's launching pad park, Prince Fielder and JJ Hardy will benefit from their young, up and coming lineup. While QC also has some nice pieces to grow with (Crosby, Hermida, Peralta, and Willingham) I just think TKO is stronger overall. If Tokyo can find a few young closers to fit into the mix they should be a dominant all around team in the coming years.
Athrun Zala: Quebec City. They are set now and have the rotation to compete. Quebec City should only get better. Tokyo's hitting is doing pretty well this year but their pitching is abysmal with very little pitching coming down the pipe for 2009. Can Diamond, Zumaya, and Volquez really make up the gap between Tokyo and Quebec City? I don't think so.
Conor Intabedd: The thing is, QC has had more to work with than the Japanese import ever did. QC has utilized their talent and managed it well, trading away some players for great prospects. I feel TKO could be better if they had the original team QC had. As it stands, I'd have to go with QC based on their pitching prospects. They feel they have 3 possible future Cy Young Award winners with Miller, Cain, and Billingsley and they like their chances in 2009.
Rey Bingo writes for EHSPN.com, Athrun Zala writes for the Japan Times, and Conor Intabedd writes for the Weekly Reno Rag. It was the most awkward gathering in sports since the '05-'06 New York Knicks.
