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EHCC Fact or Fiction: Week 3
Clemens vs. Griffey: Who's bones are more brittle?
By Pedro Gammo and Jayson Snark / EHSPN.com
Fact or Fiction: Delmon Young’s Fantasy Value has significantly dropped in the EHCC with his Recent Actions and indefinite Suspension.
Gammo: Fiction
Young wasn’t going to be called up by Rakeville in 2006 regardless of his production (or lack thereof). The interesting thing is now Young may not play ANY games in 2006 after this suspension. He's going to miss a good deal of time during this season and by the time he would have been called up to Tampa (probably around mid-summer or September) he'll be coming off whatever suspension he gets and will likely need to get back into his groove. I would assume Tampa Bay management will keep him down in Durham for the remainder of the 2006 season. If that's the case, Rakeville may have lucked out because if Young does not play at all in 2006 they will not be forced to bring him up onto their EHCC roster in 2007, which will give them one extra year to mold him into the All-Star they believe he will be in the future. That gives Young a whole year in the MLB to get used to pitchers and make mistakes at no cost to the team from Rakeville, just like Quebec City has been able to do with Josh Barfield. If anything, Young's value may have increased in the EHCC.
Snark: Fact
It’s hard to imagine that Young’s long-term value has significantly dropped, as he is still considered by just about everyone to be the best prospect in all of baseball. However, it is now clear that Young will not contribute to the 2006 fantasy campaign at all, which could come as a slight blow to Rakeville’s offense down the line. A fragile Barry Bonds cannot be counted on to deliver solid production all year and it’s likely that Vernon Wells will see his statistics come down to the mean a bit in the coming months. A dose of Delmon Young could have provided Rakeville with significant ammunition after the All-Star Break, similar to Jeff Francoeur’s hot streak upon promotion last season. Now that possibility seems unlikely at best. Young had struggled in spring training with Tampa Bay and had yet to work through his hitting problems in Triple A. Now, indefinitely suspended and possibly out for as much as half the season (if not more), it’s extremely unlikely that Young will see major league playing time this year, and his impact will be slim to none. Don’t expect Rakeville to add him at any point this year.
It’s important to remember, however, that Young is still only 20 years old. While it seems like he’s been the best minor league player for a long time, he’s very young and still has a chance to make an impact down the line. It just won’t be in 2006.
Fact or Fiction: Ken Griffey Jr. will have more of an impact than Roger Clemens in 2006.
Gammo: Fiction
Ken Griffey Jr. has already shown he can't stay healthy in 2006. He got hurt simply by swinging a bat. He'll come back in a week or so and do one of two things: He'll take it easy and put up decent numbers or he'll put up Griffey numbers for a month or so and get hurt again, perhaps just in time for the stretch run. Clemens on the other hand won't start playing until June or even July, probably after the All-Star break. He has reportedly said he will only sign with a legitimate contender because all he wants to do is win. This will give Clemens more value in the WINS column for the final 2-3 months. Also, by time the stretch run is coming to an end and the playoffs start, Clemens will be at mid-season form. He's 43 years old. If he was pitching the whole season I’d say it was a push, but he's not. He'll help whatever team he's on come playoff time in the EHCC.
Snark: Fact
Well, obviously they’ll both have a huge impact as we’re talking about two of the best players in all of baseball. Wait? What’s that? It’s not 1996? Oh, well then, that’s a horse of a different color. Quite frankly owners of both these guys should consider themselves lucky if they get anything out of these two. Both are ridiculously old and injury prone (especially Griffey) and it’s really something of a crapshoot to expect any significant value from either. Owners of both players should just be happy that they were able to milk another stellar year out of both.
That said, I have to give the nod to Griffey, because at least he’s under contract! Clemens has been doing the Brett Favre dance all off-season and has continued to carry it into the regular season as well. If and when he comes back (and I think he will) he’ll most likely provide a solid WHIP and ERA, but I doubt that his Ks will be what they once were. I’d have to assume that his Wins will also be there just because Clemens is a jerk who couldn’t care less about team loyalty and will just go to the highest bidder with the best shot at the title. Allow me to o off on a tangent for a moment, if you will. What is Clemens’ deal? I mean, really, what a douchebag. The guy pitches for Boston for 12 years (the last 4 of which he completely dogged it), then bolts for the Great White North for a boatload of cash, immediately gets back into shape and tries again, winning a Cy Young Award in his 2 seasons there, then bitches about not playing for a winner (as if he didn’t know what he was getting himself into when he VOLUNTARILY signed with Toronto), goes to the biggest front-runners out there in the Yankees, wins another Cy Young and a World Series, “retires,” then, without ever having taken a season off, goes to his hometown to pitch for the Houston Astros. Okay, great, end of story? Nope. Now he’s just sitting around, biding his time and make overtures to any contending team that’ll listen (Boston? Check. Yankees? Check. Rangers? Check. Astros? Check.). All this guy cares about is getting paid and looking good. What a jerk.
Anyway, as long as Clemens keeps this dance up (and there are reports that he might wait until July to make a decision), Griffey will provide more value over the long-term. If nothing else, at least Griffey can be put on the DL, allowing his team to pick up another player to fill his slot and provide some production. Clemens just sits on the bench taking up space.
Fact or Fiction: There will be multiple players worth using waiver priority on before the Minor League Draft.
Gammo: Fact
Howie Kendrick, once Yahoo puts him in the system, will be one. Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, and Mike Pelfrey if they are pushed up into the majors before the all star break would most definitely be worth a waiver priority use. I'm not sure if all, or any, of those final three will be up before the minor league draft however. Kendrick should be, unless he pulls a Verlander and never gets put into the Yahoo database (entirely possible as there are whispers of his return to the minors already). If that's the case I'm not too certain anyone will be worth it before the draft. As it stands, Kendrick is guaranteed to be picked up off waivers before becoming a Free Agent once added to Yahoo.
Snark: Fiction
There will certainly be one, and maybe two, but waiver priority is a precious commodity for most teams. If a hot prospect unowned by any EHCC team becomes available on the waiver wire (a la Zach Duke last year) before the draft, odds are it’ll be a one time deal. However, does a team really want to expend a high priority waiver spot for a less touted prospect when a Justin Upton could potentially be looming around the corner? Therefore it’s hard to even determine which minor leaguers can be called “waiver worthy.”
That said, there should be a few interesting call-ups later this season. The question is, will they be called up before the minor league draft? I’d have to believe no, they probably don’t, barring unforeseen injuries. And the fact of the matter is that even if they do come up briefly, who’s to say that Yahoo! will register them as available? Justin Verlander started 2 games last year in mid-season for the Detroit Tigers, yet was M.I.A. from the Yahoo! rankings all year. It put teams in a peculiar predicament, as he was no longer eligible for the minor league draft yet not available to be grabbed off of waivers either. With such a flawed ranking system, it’s hard to imagine a number of players being so highly coveted before the minor league draft.
Fact or Fiction: The strategy of Pitcher streamlining (aka pitcher churning) hurts a team more than it helps.
Gammo: Fiction
If done properly it can be a very good strategy. Teams who want to use it have to realize that they're basically giving up on ERA and WHIP, especially if they do it every day for the entire week. It also does not guarantee wins in Wins and Ks. The way the strategy should be used to be effective is later in the week if Wins and Ks are close AND ERA and WHIP are out of reach. It's too much of a risk to utilize for the entire season or even for an entire week. It makes more sense for a pitching staff that lacks competitiveness all around, but any team can use it to help their staff if they NEED it come Thursday. It works well if used properly.
Snark: Fact
Pitcher streamlining is, in my opinion, a legitimate strategy for fantasy baseball. However, the merits of this strategy are certainly up for debate. Some league officials have challenged that this strategy is damaging to the league and that if not mandated a number of teams will implement it as a wholesale strategy rather than play a more traditional strategy (i.e. a few relievers and quality starters with very few match up pick ups). I think this is an interesting thought, but similar to that of a major league baseball team abandoning the concept of starting pitchers and just going with middle relievers at 2 -3 innings each, or inserting a starting pitcher in the third inning. Interesting idea, not sure that it would work in practice. It might sound like a good idea, but I just don’t see it working on a consistent basis. It’s more of a supplemental strategy to be used when needed, such as playing a team with a far superior pitching staff. It can level the playing field in a situation like this.
However, if abused, this strategy almost certainly hurts a team more than it helps. Starting with the obvious, any team that employs this strategy is punting two categories, ERA and WHIP. The reason for this is that the type of players who are going to be available in a 12 team mixed league are not going to be the cream of the crop and therefore be prone to giving up higher than average runs and hits/walks per inning. That said, they could potentially provide a few Ks and a scavenger win in the process. However, it’s just as likely that a team will be sending these players to the hill for them and watching them destroy their ERA and WHIP while not striking out any batters and losing the game. It’s very much a situation where someone has to weigh the heavy risk versus the smaller reward. If you think you’re going to lose these categories anyway it’s worth a shot. If not, you’re better off sending your aces to the hill.
I’m a firm believer in the theory that you play the horse you rode into town. In other words, stick with your own guys and trust your initial talent evaluation. If the players you have can’t get the job done, then what makes you think the match-ups you’re selecting are going to be favorable? The strategy is high risk/low reward and is very rarely a viable option, and even then a manager must weigh whether the small reward is worth the roster spot that could be used for a more valuable permanent fixture.
Fact or Fiction: Peoria will get their first official EHCC victory this week against Tijuana.
Gammo: Fiction
Tijuana has been on a roll as of late, giving Winston -Salem a run for their money and beating a fairly strong Golden team. The Cardinals are just too weak on both sides of the ball and Chris Shelton, as good as an April as he's had, has already started to cool off a bit. He shouldn’t continue a slump per se, but he won't be hitting a bomb every game. Tijuana should dominate strike outs and wins while making a strong push at the other pitching categories. I don't expect Peoria to beat anyone except Bye Week in their inaugural season.
Snark: Fact
Peoria has done a pretty decent job assembling a motley crew of talent that almost resembles an EHCC caliber team. Their lineup has some solid players who can help to eek out a couple of categories in batting column. Corey Patterson and Felipe Lopez have combined for 16 stolen bases already this season and should have enough to win Peoria steals, especially with Brian Roberts hitting the DL for Tijuana. Bill Hall has also been swinging a hot bat, and Chris Shelton, although in a bit of a slump right now, has already proven this season that he can go red hot at a moment’s notice. This should get Peoria 3 or 4 of the batting categories (probably Runs, Average, Stolen Bases, and maybe RBIs) to go along with 2 and maybe 3 pitching categories, led by Tom Glavine’s ERA and WHIP. While it might be a stretch to think that the rest of Peoria’s thin staff can hold on, all it takes is a few solid starts and good relievers to net ERA and WHIP. I predict a hard fought 6-4 victory from the Cardinals, who should benefit from the immigrant strike in Tijuana.
Pedro Gammo and Jayson Snark write for EHSPN.com. Neither player was present for the big EHSPN versus EHSI softball game this weekend. Nobody from either team seemed to notice.
