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2006 Draft Preview
An in-depth look at the picks, players, and positions
By Listen DePleyohs / Baseball Tri-Weekly
On the brink of a new season, the EHCC has been crippled by scandal. The sudden resignation of Haverhill’s management has sent owners scrambling to fill the void, taking precious attention away from one of the most important events of the season: the 2006 General Draft.
This year brings a new crop of unproven rookies overflowing with potential. Guys like Ian Kinsler, J.J. Hardy and Ryan Zimmerman, who were overlooked in the minor league draft because their talent was too ripe. And the older veterans like David Wells, Mike Piazza and Geoff Jenkins, who are long past their prime but could be the final piece in a playoff run.
Like many drafts before, some big names were selected in 2005, countering the claim that the General Draft is just a filler before the regular season. Players like Jason Bay, Cliff Lee, Chase Utley and Derrick Lee provided sparks that their teamsnever thought possible when selected. Dozens of unassuming players full of untapped potential wait to be given a chance.
Golden is easily the team to watch Sunday. With four of the first 14 picks, one of the most improved teams last season is almost guaranteed a playoff spot this season if they can pick wisely. Weymouth has put themselves in a strong position too. As one of the three top teams on paper going into the season, their two early picks give them a leg up on the long season ahead.
I have gotten a chance to talk to most teams, and while I have no doubt I have been subjected to some misinformation, I will try to give you an idea on how players will fall. With a plethora of players, both young and old, 2006 may have the richest draft pool in recent memory:
1st Pick – Quebec City (from Tokyo)
Justin Verlander, SP, Det
Pat Renaud made his pick known early. Verlander has long been the focus of hungry general managers, looking to add his explosive arm to their rotations. While it is a great selection first overall, it almost guarantees the Piglets are going to pick up some losses this season.
2nd Pick – Golden (from Peoria)
Ian Kinsler, SS/2B, Tex
While Kinsler may seem out of place on a team with Jeter and Soriano patrolling its middle infield, the upside of this Texas player cannot be passed over. With Soriano able to play the outfield, Kinsler gives the Gryphons depth and a player who could develop into a star. They can wait on him or play him, depending on their needs or if a trade develops.
3rd pick – Weymouth (from Haverhill)
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Was
Weymouth’s offense is aging, and Chipper Jones could be the first on the Shaddupu chopping block. Zimmerman is a talented young player who can hit in the utility spot if needed, and back up Jones who is coming off an injury-hampered season. While they don’t need to address any positional spots this early, they may take a shot a Zimmerman simply because of his potential.
4th Pick – Golden (from Tijuana)
Kameron Loe, SP, Tex
Worked mostly out of the bullpen for Texas until August, where he went 4-2 as a starter with some impressive performances. Only 24 years old, he will add a younger arm to the Gryphons more seasoned rotation and another pitcher who can keep the ball down in Colorado’s thin air.
5th Pick – Weymouth (from Golden)
Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cin
This pick is up in the air, though I do expect Weymouth to go starting pitching. Arroyo, a former Shaddupu, would slide right back into the rotation and, with his move to the National League, he becomes a much more attractive pick.
6th Pick – Bizton
Tadahito Iguchi, 2b, ChW
While this pick could easily be Danys Baez (the highest ranked player from last year) I am assuming Biz Brown shows up for the draft. With several holes in his offense, Iguchi is probably the best player available. He can be a top 6 second baseman this season and the drop off after him is too far to pass him up.
7th Pick – Winston-Salem
Bobby Jenks, RP, ChW
The Monsters will likely take the first closer in the draft. Whether it is Jenks or Chris Ray is uncertain. Jenks proved his abilities for a part of last season and should be expected to carry through to 2006. The combination of Jenks and Francisco Cordero should give Winston-Salem a nice young base to their bullpen.
8th Pick – Quebec City
Ryan Madson, SP, Phi
With no obvious needs on offense and an avoidance of older pitchers, I see Quebec City grabbing another young arm. Even if Madson is not initially in the Phillies rotation, Renaud has made it know that he is willing to hang onto a talented young pitcher until he is ready to put up big numbers. Madson falls into that category.
9th Pick – Tokyo (from Las Vegas)
J.J. Hardy, SS, Mil
It is tough to guess what Tokyo is going to do. There are plenty of talented shortstops available, but few are young enough to fit their team design. I think this pick with either go to Hardy or a starting pitcher. With Barmes coming off a breakout, then disappointing season, Hardy would be nice to have around in case the Colorado boy doesn’t develop after the injury.
10th Pick – Rakeville
Bruce Chen, SP, Bal
The Rockets are hoping for another consistent arm to add to their rotation, and Chen can provide that. While many of the teams are looking for pitching, Rakeville is one of the few in a position to take veteran talent over a youthful arm.
11th Pick – Bridgewater
Paul Byrd, SP, Cle
Bridgewater should be looking pitching here, and while it may not be Byrd, a quality veteran guy is probably in the cards. Byrd should keep his ratios similar to last season, with a boost in wins thanks to the Weasels bats.
12th Pick – Las Vegas (from Weymouth)
Kenji Johjima, C, Sea
The Doggs would be lucky if Johjima slipped all the way to pick 12. He would be the final piece to their high-powered offense, bringing a good mix of average and production. If he doesn’t make it this late, Las Vegas may take a shot at another young catcher or step back and take a pitcher.
*Each of these picks, except Verlander, is based solely on DePleyohs's vast knowledge of baseball and are only guesses.
We got some of the top minds in Baseball together to break down each position and which players will make the most impact in 2006.
Top Catchers – Captain Chode, Atlantic Insider
1. Ramon Hernandez, Bal
His production should increase with a full-time catching role in Baltimore. Going from the worst hitters park to an above average home run park for righties doesn't hurt any either.
2. Josh Willingham, Fla
The catching position is his to lose in south Florida. He's now in the majors full time after hitting .324 with 19 homers and 54 RBI's in just 219 AB's in Triple A last year. The potential for 30 HR's is not out of the question once he gets comfortable.
3. Rod Barajas, Tex
Playing 81 games in the Little League park in Arlington will help my Grandmother's offensive prowess. He should be good for 20 HR's and 70 RBI's although he may bring down your team average a little. This is only his 2nd year as a full time player so he has the potential for better offensive numbers with more at bats.
4. Michael Barrett, ChC
The friendly confines of Wrigley are just that...friendly. Barrett should take advantage of that and he's just hitting his prime at only 29. His ‘04 and ‘05 numbers were very similar too each other, so look for similar numbers. He'll give you a solid starting catcher with a decent average and high teens in homeruns.
5. Mike Piazza, SD
To get a starting catcher with Piazza's capability after the 20th round is a nice option. He moves to Petco where HR's are tough to come by but he has a lot to prove after three tough years in New York. In limited duty last year w/ the NYM he hit 19 homers w/ 62 RBI's. Many teams would take that from their starting catcher. Expect similar numbers and maybe even a 1B option that will save his legs.
Chode's pick - Kenji Johjima, Sea
Nobody knows what to expect from this 29 year old "rookie" catching product from Japan who averaged 30 homers and 100 RBI. In his first major league season I wouldn't expect numbers like that, but in a weak fantasy position do you really know what you're going to get? Safeco isn't the best hitters park for 81 games but you could probably do worse for a sleeping catcher. Batting in the lower third of the order also takes the pressure off him.
Top First Basemen – Jayson Snark, EHSPN.com
1. Nick Johnson, Was
2. Shea Hillenbrand, Tor
3. Lyle Overbay, Tor
4. Adam LaRoche, Atl
5. Phil Nevin, Tex
Snark's pick - Casey Kotchman, Ana
Top Second Basemen – Skip Clifton, San Diego Chronicle
1. Tadahito Iguchi, ChW
The 31 year old rookie had an outstanding year in Chicago, but nobody can be sure how long it will last. While Scott Podsednik keeps getting on base in front of him, Iguchi will continue to get meatballs from distracted pitchers.
2. Mark Loretta, Bos
There are 2 teams in the American League that can boost your offensive numbers just by being in their lineup, and the Red Sox is one of them. Moving from spacious Petco Park to hitter-friendly Fenway will surely boost Loretta's 3 HR and 38 RBI from last season.
3. Ronnie Belliard, Cle
After a few sub-par seasons with the Brewers and Rockies, he's finally found a home in Cleveland. A second baseman, in his prime, in a lineup full of outstanding hitters? Take advantage while you can.
4. Craig Biggio, Hou
You won't find a 40 year old sans-Balco as productive as Biggio. A National League pennant wasn't the way he wanted to end his career, so he's coming back (along with the rest of the Astros) for one more run at a championship.
5. Ryan Freel, Cin
A great source of stolen bases that can be put in any part of your lineup. Not only will Freel get you 40 thefts, but can be placed anywhere in your order (2B, 3B, OF) that he can fit.
Clifton's Pick - Ian Kinsler, Tex
Top Shortstop – John Krak, EHSPN.com
1. Orlando Cabrera, LAA
2. David Eckstein, StL
3. Juan Uribe, ChW
4. Khalil Green, SD
5. Adam Everett, Hou
Krak Pick - Yuniesky Betancourt, Sea
Top Third Base – Athrun Zala, Japan Times
1. Melvin Mora, Bal
Mora is the only potential starting third baseman left by draft time. He shouldn't see significant improvement this year from last year's statistics but he will always give you regular production.
2. Ryan Freel, Cin
With eligibility at three positions (2B, 3B, OF) and the ability to steal bases, Freel could be an excellent backup infielder for a competing team.
3. Ryan Zimmerman, Was
He is the only player on the list that has the potential to be a future starting third baseman. Zimmerman is currently known for his defense but showed considerable pop in his short journey through the minor leagues in 2005.
4. Bill Hall, Mil
I see a trend developing here. EHCC teams tend to lock up their third basemen to long contracts, leaving only utility players and injury replacements for other teams to pick up at draft time. Hall should see time filling in for JJ Hardy if he goes down to injury this year. If not he should be able to fill in at most infield positions for the Brewers.
5. Bill Mueller, LAD
Another utility option as Mueller could play both third base and second base for a team looking for an injury fill in. With Kent at second Mueller might get some time there if this is the year Kent finally acts his age.
Zala Pick - Shea Hillenbrand, Tor
Shea should see DH time and give Glaus the occasional break in an improved offense north of the border. He may see an increase in his stats across the board while participating in this offense.
Top Outfielders – by Kyle Gaffer, Baseball Tri-Weekly
1. Randy Winn, SF
2. Geoff Jenkins, Mil
3. David Dellucci, Tex
4. Curtis Granderson, Det
5. Jason Lane, Pit
Gaffer Pick – Austin Kearns, Cin
Top Starters – by Jim Phallis, Baseball Tri-Weekly
1. Bruce Chen, Bal
He has been in the league for ages, but only in the last few seasons has he gotten a chance to start. He has a good ERA, decent K-rate and is only 28. He is easily a first round pick and should improve over the next few years to be a solid keeper.
2. Paul Byrd, Cle
Byrd beats the strike zone with an array of pitches that keeps hitters off-balance. Wins has long been a problem for this veteran. He should get the run support in Cleveland he needs for double digit wins, and with a high 3 ERA and 1.2 Whip, he is a consistent option for 2006.
3. Bronson Arroyo, Cin
Bigger ballpark should knock his ERA down to the low 4’s and facing a pitcher should give him an extra 30 K’s. But, playing for the Reds should kill any hope for an impressive win total. Arroyo is the best available depth pitcher. He is fit, will throw all season and be fairly consistent.
4. David Wells, Bos
The talent is there, and he has been resilient over the past few seasons, but the 43 year-old Wells has no upside and is an injury concern. Good pick to round out your rotation for 2006, but nothing to build on.
5. Ryan Madson, Phi
Madson started in the minors, but has mostly seen time in the bullpen for the Phillies. 2006 will be his chance to start this season. While I expect him to struggle, he could have a valuable payoff if you stick with him.
Phallis Pick – Chien-Ming Wang, NYY
Pitched well his rookie season and expected to be the number 5 starter for the Yankees, Wang could easily replicate his numbers from last season. He pitches hard and low with an above-average sinker. If he can stay healthy and pitching, Wang has an outside shot at picking up 15 sloppy wins. More reasonable, expect 10 wins and a low 4 ERA this season, with the chance for him to evolve into a solid 2-3 guy down the road.
Top Relief – Pedro Gammo, EHSPN.com
1. Bobby Jenks, ChW
came into his own in the World Series. A big fat guy who throws gas. Well, did last year anyway. Supposedly he's lost some zip on his fast ball during the off-season (10mph!) but he's got the closer job for the defending champs, not a bad gig. I don't know if Jenks will keep the job all year long however. If he does he's got the starting pitching to get him opportunities to help your team. But at the same time if he goes high in the draft he could be the bust of the year.
2. Chris Ray, Bal
With BJ Ryan going up north it left a big hole in Baltimore. The closer role was going to be between Chris Ray and Jorge "the answer" Julio. With Julio moving to New York, Chris Ray became the only logical choice to put in the save situations. Mazzone may help him a bit as well. Look for him to get 30+ saves if he keeps the job all year.
3. Tom Gordon, Phi
Closer in Philly. Didn't want just "closer money" from the Yankees, he wanted the title as well. He's not going to stay healthy all year but when he is he'll get you saves. There's already concerns about his health in Spring Training but he's still one of the few guys guaranteed the closer position when healthy on our free agent list.
4. Scott Linebrink, SD
It's too bad Hoffman stuck around with the Padres, otherwise Linebrink would easily be the top RP choice in this year's draft. As it stands he's still a set up guy, but a damn good one. And one that's waiting to pounce on the closer roll once Hoffman gets hurt. He'll also keep a solid ERA/WHIP along with a few vulture wins. He doesn't hurt as a 25th guy.
5. Scott Shields, Ana
the best non-closer RP in MLB. He'll get a team 7-10 vulture wins, high K rate, and is just waiting to take over closer roll. Oh ya, K-rod is in the way. Well, if something were to ever happen to him, be the first to pick Shields up off the waiver wire if he goes undrafted.
Gammo Pick - Craig Hansen, Bos
A lot of "If's" follow around this young man. If Keith Foulke can't handle closing duties again this year. If Mike Timlin isn't first in line to replace him. If he's ready to take over. Craig Hansen might get some save opportunities this year and he's slotted as Boston's "closer of the future" like Huston Street and Mike Gonzalez were for their respected clubs. This is a keeper, so keep your eye on him.
Honorable Mentions: Justin Duchscherer, Joaquin Benoit, Kyle Farnsworth, Neal Cotts
Team Draft Preview: A quick snippet of what each team is looking for and when some plan on getting it.
Weymouth Shaddupu
With their offense bulging with talent, and a handful of aces in their rotation, the defending champs are free to pick and choose what positions to look for. Yukon Cornelius takes great pride in his organization’s four rings, and it is doubtful they would take many risks in the draft.
Look for solid veterans and consistent performers, along with a young setup guy late. It is Weymouth’s signature, a strategy that has proven very successful.
“We have never been so excited to come to the ballpark,” said Weymouth fisherman Stu O’Clarky. “I heard they built a waterfall in the outfield.”
Bridgewater Weasels
Pitching should be in the Weasels’ sights. With the loss of their top ace, they will probably shoot for a mix of proven guys and potential guys, with a closer or two thrown in the top three rounds.
Their offense is in good shape, except at catcher were they may need to grab a young bat for down the road.
Rakeville Rockets
With a lot of work done in the off-season to fill their lineup, GM Jack Reed will turn to his strength and draft pitching. With openings in the rotation and bullpen, they will likely get one of each in the first two rounds.
“We finally have a team that can hit the ball,” said Reed. “Now we must try to regain our title of best staff in the league.”
With Barry Bonds, an injury concern, the Rockets may look to grab an outfielder late, but expect mostly arms.
Las Vegas Doggs
Except for their hole at catcher, the Doggs are a complete team. Pitching should be the focus later in the draft, with a utility guy going somewhere in the third round.
“The only thing we lack is flexibility,” said Howe Dogg. “We don’t have a guy who can spot start for us. We are looking for the best available, but that will be a focus.”
While the front end of their pitching staff is impressive, Sheets and Prior are injury risks and the Doggs will need some more depth in their rotation.
Quebec City Piglets
Verlander will add to a promising young rotation that the Piglets expect will carry them into the future. With so many young guys developing on different time tables, I would expect Quebec City to pick up a veteran starter or two later in the draft. It would be a disservice to the Piglets high-powered offense if their pitching flails from inexperience.
Relief Pitching is something they will address, but not with one of their top picks.
“I'm not sure that there is a "gaping" hole in our bullpen,” said Renaud. “I think just by virtue of having a young talent like Chad Cordero in the pen will win us Saves a couple of times a year anyway, maybe more than that. However, something I've noticed in recent years is that this organization has put far too much emphasis on saves. We've taken closers with the first pick in the draft more often than not. Some have worked out great (Keith Foulke), others could not have been more disastrous (Arthur Rhodes).”
With depth on offense, both Rolen and Crosby on the bench and Hermida and Milledge in Winnipeg, The Piglets eyes are set on pitching.
Winston Salem Green Monsters
The Green Monsters have their lineup and rotation filled out, but they are young at key positions. Willy Mo Pena and Aaron Hill’s playing time must be a concern at this point for GM Michael Rotch, and with plenty of veteran outfielders available, look for them to grab a slugger late and maybe a utility man too.
Winston-Salem’s rotation has a flock of young arms, and the cigarette-town front office is confident.
“I think we have the potential to stand toe to toe with any of the big teams,” said Rotch. “Once I fill in some of the voids I feel need to be addressed, namely bullpen depth, I think we'll have the possibility to win every week on the pitching side.”
With Myers, Radke, Liriano and Lee, there is a good chance the team can back up those statements.
Bizton Markies
Inattentiveness has left one of the most promising young teams in disarray. Expect all offensive picks out of Bizton as they have to fill four starter positions. Luckily, with most of the teams looking for pitching, the Markies should be able to grab some good value picks late. With no catcher, second baseman, outfielder or utility guy, it will be a guessing game on who to take and in what round to maximize the talent.
Luckily, with a nice core of veteran hurlers and some stud sluggers, it shouldn’t take much for Bizton to get back on its feet and compete for a playoff spot.
“We are looking to get younger in the outfield,” said Brown. Something they may have trouble doing.
Tijuana Hispanics
With no picks until the fourth round, Tijuana will just have to spring on the best available when the time comes.
“I did bring in a few veterans, but they still have some years left,” said GM Peter Kantor. “I'm hoping guys like Suppan and Anderson can keep me competitive until Morneau, Papelbon, and my younger guys come together.”
Golden Gryphons
The Gryphons are sitting pretty with four high picks and Golden management is hoping to get better returns than they did last season. Trades and pickups throughout the season have netted them a solid veteran team that is well-balanced.
Golden has never been shy with their ambitious nature, and their picks should reflect that. They will go young when they can, but the focus is on this season and a mix of veteran pitching and underrated offensive guys late should accomplish that.
“I feel as though I may have gotten a little more out of some trades,” said Comtois. “I made a few decisions that cost me a few picks and players, but with the draft I feel I can obtain 5 great players to build a team that is going to make the playoffs and maybe make an upset or two while there.”
With Giambi at first, Golden may look to replace him or bring in someone as insurance. Fortunately, few teams are looking at the position so they can probably hold off until they pick in the 5th round.
Haverhill Expos
Though they don’t have a first round pick, team officials assured me that they would draft Denny Baez the first chance they get.
“He is too good a talent to pass up,” said no one.
Tokyo Omyoujis
Enkidu Ishtar has made it clear to me that, once again, this is not the year for the Oatmeals. Still, Tokyo finds their prospect tank needs to be re-supplied at a few key positions.
“Our corners and outfield are pretty set,” said Ishtar. “Most likely a young shortstop or second baseman with potential.”
Unfortunately, the team from Japan traded out of a position to take Kinsler. That could mean they trade away their first round pick or simply dig a bit deeper into their scouting book. Tokyo also needs a long-term option at catcher and it wouldn’t hurt to add more arms to the rotation.
After the first round, their next pick comes in the fourth round, so the value they get from that first pick is important.
Listen DePleyohs writes a column for Baseball Tri-Weekly. He was recently seen running from his apartment, naked and screaming hysterically. The only thing found was his computer, with this story on the screen, and an empty box of Honey Buns.
