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June Trade Analysis
The month of new homes, and new championship hopes
By Jayson Snark / EHSPN.com
June was a busy month for trading as the EHCC creeps ever closer to the July 31st trade deadline. Tijuana was especially busy, taking part in no less than 4 transactions. Let’s take a closer look at each trade individually, and examine the winners and losers for June’s trades.
June 3
Golden gets: OF Moises Alou, SP Josh Towers
Tijuana gets: SP Derek Lowe
This trade was not a bad one for either side. Tijuana gives up a young, inconsistent pitcher and a very old, consistent outfielder for a former 20 game winner in a good pitcher’s park. However, the trade was basically a wash, as Towers and Lowe have one win apiece and average-to-bad ERAs and WHIPs since the deal. Alou has performed steadily, if not spectacularly, since the trade, despite being 117 years old.
Grades: Golden (C+), Tijuana (C)
June 4
Tijuana gets: OF Jose Guillen
Tokyo gets: 2007 TIJ 2nd round draft pick
A fantastic trade for Tijuana, as Guillen has been excellent for all of 2005. Guillen has been absolutely worth a 2nd round major league pick. As for Tokyo, Guillen (or any good player over the age of 26) didn’t provide much value wasting away on a team that is clearly built for the future, but they probably should have held out for more than just a 2nd round major league pick. I’m confident they could have done better.
Grades: Tijuana (A), Tokyo (B)
June 6
Golden gets: SP Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez
Las Vegas gets: 2006 GLD 3rd round draft pick
A good trade for Las Vegas, since they would have likely dropped Hernandez once they needed a roster spot anyway. Anytime you can get something for a player you would have given up for nothing anyway it is a great move for your ballclub. As for Golden, a 3rd round pick is far too much for an expansion team to give up for a journeyman starting pitcher. This move smacks of desperation to make the playoffs, and Golden should be trying to get younger, not older. A terrible move for them, as Hernandez won’t make much of an impact this year and he certainly won’t be an asset going forward. On a side note, Hernandez went on the DL 9 days after this trade and has yet to return to lower his 4.88 ERA.
Grades: Golden (D-), Las Vegas (B+)
June 24
Golden gets: 2B Brian Roberts, OF Garrett Anderson, SP Freddie Garcia, SP Jon Lieber, 2006 TIJ 3rd round draft pick
Tijuana gets: 2B Bill Hall, OF Torii Hunter, SP Kyle Davies, 2006 GLD 1st round minor league draft pick
This was an interesting trade. It’s rare that a trade shows such a lack of vision by both GMs, but this is a great example of one that does just that. Tijuana traded 3 very good players and a draft pick for a slightly above average fantasy outfielder, a promising young pitcher, and a player who was available as a free agent 4 days before this trade. Meanwhile, Golden continues to add older players who will not put them over the top for a championship, nor will they help them build for the future. However, this being said, they did get decent value for what they gave up. Freddie Garcia is a decent fantasy pitcher for a good team that will earn him wins, and Brian Roberts, though he has cooled down significantly from his torrid ’05 start, is still a good option at a hard-to-fill position. Garrett Anderson, although in his mid-30’s, is still a very good fantasy player and an asset to Golden’s outfield. Lieber is completely useless this season and the 3rd round pick replaces the one they threw away for El Duque.
For Tijuana, the immediate benefits for this trade are lacking. Hall was clearly a throw-in by Golden to replace at least some of Roberts production, as is Hunter for Anderson. (Hunter, while a fantastic player in the major leagues, largely due to his defense, is only a slightly above-average fantasy player; in fact, his greatest real-life asset, defense, is actually a hinderance to his value as a fantasy player, as his reckless style in the outfield can lead to many bumps and bruises that keep him out of the lineup on occasion.) Davies is clearly the prize, and he could turn out to be a good one. He was ranked by many scouts as the Brave’s top pitching prospect and got off to a very good ’05 start for a contending team. Tijuana’s scouting department has been severely lacking though, and it is questionable whether or not they will take full advantage of the minor league pick, making this a very dubious trade for Tijuana.
Grades: Golden (B), Tijuana (C+)
June 27
Tijuana gets: RP Ryan Dempster
Tokyo gets: 2006 TIJ 2nd round minor league draft pick
Another bad trade for Tijuana, and a perfect example of why the minor league pick they received from Golden was devalued by poor management. While Dempster has had a decent season, picking up 12 saves for the Cubbies, his ERA is over 4 and he holds the most volatile position in all of fantasy sports. To put in perspective just how tenuous the closer position is, Joe Borowski, the Cub’s closer last season, was designated for assignment yesterday. Who is to say that Dempster won’t join him in a year from now?
While I do think Dempster is better than Borowski, the point is that he is not a stud closer by any means (such as a Rivera or K-Rod) and therefore is not worth a minor league draft pick. Tokyo really made out with this move.
Grades: Tijuana (D+), Tokyo (A)
June 27
Quebec City gets: OF Jose Guillen
Tijuana gets: 3B Morgan Ensberg, 2006 QC 3rd round draft pick
Now this is more like it for Tijuana. Not only did they grab a player at a more valuable position, with better numbers, and not only were they able to squeeze a 3rd round draft pick out of Quebec City, but they basically spun a 2nd round draft pick for an all-star third baseman and a 3rd round draft pick, since they acquired Guillen a few weeks earlier at that rate. Just a great steal for Tijuana, and a huge blunder by Quebec City, especially as Ensberg continues to mash.
Quebec City obviously had plans to move OF JD Drew (which they did later that day) and therefore wanted to replace his OF production (which they did, and then some, with Guillen). However, unless Scott Rolen is able to return to form, this could turn out to be a disaster for the Piglets, as Ensberg had led their recent resurgence the past few weeks, and is showing no signs of letting up, while Rolen does essentially nothing. This could really come back to haunt QC in the pennant race.
Grades: Quebec City (C... F if Rolen continues to fail to produce while Ensberg continues his hot streak), Tijuana (A-)
June 27
Haverhill gets: OF JD Drew, RP Brian Fuentes, 2006 QC 5th round draft pick
Quebec City gets: 2005 HAV 1st round minor league draft pick, 2005 HAV 2nd round minor league draft pick
Not a bad deal for either side. Haverhill gets much needed relief help, a legitimate third outfielder, and a draft pick for two minor league picks. Normally this trade would get blasted for it’s lack of forward vision, but the fact of the matter is that Haverhill probably would not have attended this year’s minor league draft anyway, and compounded by their weak minor league scouting system. It is a very good trade for Quebec City, as they now have 5 minor league picks in the upcoming draft, which will clearly allow them to re-tool while continuing to win now. Although it hurts their relief pitching a bit, it does nothing to hurt their offense thanks to the addition of Guillen, and it allows them to keep an eye towards the future. With their recently re-vamped minor league scouting department, expect Quebec City to make out very well in the long-run on this trade.
Grades: Haverhill (B-), Quebec City (B+)
June 29
Rakeville gets: 1B David Ortiz, The lower of Tijuana's two 2006 1st round minor league draft picks
Tijuana gets: 1B Justin Morneau, SP Chris Young
Before I begin skewering Tijuana for this trade, I should point out that I think Tijuana is doing the right thing by aggressively going younger and building for the future. However, this being said, this was simply a terrible trade for them and an amazing coup by Rakeville. Tijuana gave up the centerpiece of their franchise and best trading commodity for two young players with potential. AND they gave up a 1st round minor league pick (Rakeville GM Jack Reed is one helluva salesman). To swipe a team’s best player and to get a 1st round minor league draft pick for two players who were completely expendable (Morneau because of Ortiz, Young because of the plethora of great young pitching in the Rakeville organization, including top prospect Felix Hernandez) is highway robbery, and enough to earn Reed EHCC Executive of the Year.
Not only does this trade greatly improve Rakeville now and in the future, but it makes the Rockets the best young team in the EHCC, and quite possibly the best team in the EHCC for years to come. Just a great, great move by the Rockets. I have no idea how Reed could have made those negotiations without actively jumping up and down with glee at the possibility of pulling off such a great deal for his team. I would not want to sit at the poker table with him.
All this being said, Morneau and Young could turn into very good—possibly even great—players down the line. However, Tijuana could have gotten much, much more for Ortiz alone, much less Ortiz and a 1st round minor league pick, making this an awful trade for them.
Grades: Rakeville (A+++++), Tijuana (D+... gets raised to a C- if Morneau wins an MVP and Young wins a Cy Young)
Jayson Snark write for EHSPN.com. His favorite holiday is Easter, but he is deathly afraid of plastic eggs.
