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Five Good Minutes with Jack Reed
By Tony Budweiser and Michael Willcall / EHSPN
‘Doop doop do do do dew...’
Tony Budweiser – Welcome back to PTD. We are pleased to have Rakeville Rocket’s General Manager and all around statheaded geek, Jack Reed. Jack, how have you been?
Jack Reed – Well.
Michael Willcall – You must be feeling much better now that Maria Sharipova has made it to the second round of Wimbledon?
Reed – I can’t say I care.
Budweiser – In a recent article quoting you says you felt 8-9 teams will compete for the EHCC title in 2008. Since then, several experts, most notably Jayson Snark and Peter Gammo, have offered dissenting opinions. What makes you think the league dynamics will change?
Reed – The simple fact is that there is no way this league will not equalize. To say that these organizations in existence for only one or two years are intellectually incompetent, as Gammo and Snark claim, is a gross overstatement. The EHCC has seen its share of stupid front offices, so one must assume that the newer franchises are better organized. Anyone with a brain can make a team competitive in three years.
Willcall – But the good teams are so good, Jack. They have the payroll to be continually dominant.
Reed – They may have the most capital now, but they don’t have the flexibility to get younger.
Let’s take a look at the "elite teams" rebuilding efforts. Quebec City has grabbed Nick Swisher, Brian McCann and Zach Greinke. Which one of these guys will be a superstar? Which one of these players will be so good, that few teams will be able to compete with the Piglets?
Nick Swisher is two years away from being a Scott Hatteberg type first baseman, losing his outfield eligibility. Zach Greinke has four pitchers, but can't throw them any harder than my daughter. There has been only one Control pitcher that was an Ace in this decade and that is Greg Maddux. There are no others. Brian McCann may be an above-average catcher some day. In fact, he may even be a top 5 catcher. I just don't think it's wise to waste a roster spot when you’re in a playoff race to hold onto a player who isn’t a guaranteed stud.
Let’s look at the Doggs. Unlike the Piglets, many of their starters are young, but Matsui and Helton will be done in three years. Tejada will drop off. Beltran has already stopped stealing bases and is only an above-average guy and the pitching staff, without Shilling, Maddux and Colon is marginal at best.
When I talked to Bridgewater about rebuilding, they reminded me that they had Pujols. I just left it at that.
Weymouth is in the best shape. Their staff is good and young, but in three years they have Manny, Ichiro, Glaus and Delgado in the red. They have no catcher, an average second baseman and a non-existent bullpen.
Let’s take a look at some players that the poor teams have grabbed that are now top players.
In just two years, Winston Salem has nabbed Brett Myers, Kevin Mench, Cliff Lee, Eric Bedard, Paul Konerko, Carl Crawford and Kenny Rogers. While a few were expansion drafted, many were free agent and offseason draft pickups.
Half of Tokyo's team is Baseball America's top 100 prospects from previous years. These are future stars that the elite teams won’t have.
Tijuana has these players and good scouting. Golden has these players and good scouting. Bizton has these players and terrible scouting but great tenacity.
Not only that, but these teams are not shy to pull the trigger. They don't have a Todd Helton and Lance Berkman on their bench, under performing and thought to be too good to drop. They have the Mark Bellhorns and Xavier Nadys who are easily expendable whenever someone is hot or seems good.
Budweiser – Why can’t the top teams get these players?
Reed - They can. The top teams are up there because they know how to run ballclubs. I have no doubt about that. They have the depth to make trades and acquire these younger stars. The problem lies with the supposed patsies not giving in. Aside from the Worst trade I have ever seen in this league, no one is giving up their young talent, leaving the top teams with a bunch of aging stars.
Top Free Agent pickups this year:
Bill Hall, GLD
Grady Sizemore, WS
Morgan Ensberg, QC
Derrick Turnbow, RAK
Chris Young, RAK
Alexis Rios, TKO
Clint Barmes, TKO
Yhancy Brazoban, LV
Hudson Street, WEY
Brett Myers, WS
Cliff Lee, WS
Ruling out closers, the most unpredictable roster position, and excluding Rakeville and Tijuana because they are in the middle of the pack, developing teams top elite teams 6 to 1. Even counting Street and Brazoban, and the lower teams are doubling top 100 player intake in only three months. More important, Hall and Barmes are middle infielders.
You have to figure this trend will continue as the league develops. While I do think the top teams now will be top teams in three years, the teams they will field will not be as good as the teams they have now, and the younger teams will be much improved. It may be a dogfight for the last two playoff spots, but those teams will not be a pushover like they have been in previous years.
Willcall – And these teams can win a championship.
Reed - Even this year, good teams have lost to marginal teams. Anyone can win a week if things come together.
Budweiser – How has the trade market been?
Reed - There is no market. With no free agency or contracts, there will never be a good market unless people want to overpay.
Willcall – What are the Rockets plans?
Reed – We are in a tough position. Our team is young and talented, and should be completive for another five years. Unfortunately, we are not quite there yet. We are were I expect the teams we talked about to be in three years, with a very good young team that could easily go on a roll and beat a few teams in the playoffs.
A lot of what we decide to do will depend on our minor league draft. With players like Delmon Young and Felix Hernandez in our system, we are afforded the opportunity to take some risks. If they don’t work out for this season, then we can just plug in one of our young studs and move on.
If we can land one or two more prime prospects, then except the Rockets to make a big move, or moves.
Budweiser – If your contract ran out today, where would you like to go?
Reed – I think Bizton. They have a young infield with a lot of upside in Beltre and Upton. Their pitching staff is not great, but has some bright spots. I’m sure I could overhaul that in a season or two. With big changes in the outfield, I think they could be a contender next year.
Budweiser – Thanks Jack.
Tony Budweiser and Michael Willcall are the hosts of EHSPN's sports talk show Pardon the Disruption, and occassionally draw gang tags under bridges with permenant markers.
