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EHCC Fact or Fiction
When, if ever, there will be parity in the EHCC?
By Pedro Gammo and Jayson Snark / EHSPN.com
Fact or Fiction: Tokyo will be in playoff contention by 2008.
Snark: Fact
26. Is that the over/under for Tokyo’s win total for the season? Not quite (thought it wouldn’t be far off). Actually, 26 is the average age of the Oujiaboard roster; 25.5 to be exact.
Tokyo is taking a very deliberate approach to building a winning team. Jimmy Gobble’s recent call-up from Triple A gives them 3 players on their active major league roster who are not currently in the bigs in addition to their 4 minor league draft picks. The youth movement is all the rage in Japan, where the patient Oujiaboard fans have not roasted GM Enkidu Ishtar for punting the 2005 season (and beyond) in favor of building for the future. The fans of Japan are used to crappy baseball and the mere prospect of a contending team, even 3 or 4 years down the road, is enough to silence critics of Ishtar’s Ainge-like plan.
This is not to say, however, that all of the young players that Tokyo is stockpiling will be stars. Young players who have grown up to suck include Tony Clark, Matt Lawton, Ellis Burks, and, of course, deposed Bye Week GM Troy O’Leary. Will Khalil Greene and Alex Rios grow to be added to that list? Only time will tell. But it’s safe to say that Ishtar is doing all he can to ensure that Tokyo will be at least a top 6 team in 3 years’ time.
Gammo: Fact
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see them in contention in 2007. They've got a plan. Basically, it reminds me of the plan the Rockets had a few years back when they started getting younger and selling off all their older players in order to compete with he big boys a few years down the road (which they are currently doing with ease). Tokyo feels they can spot talent before it spots themselves. They currently have 3 minor league players on their major league roster, and had 3 others a month ago (they recently had been called up). The average age for a player on their team is 24. They're gonna be coming up into their prime all at the same time and when hey do they could do some serious damage to the competition...that is, if Tokyo actually has done their homework and picked the right players for the job.
Fact or Fiction: The Swingers have a legitimate chance of finishing the season in last place.
Snark: Fiction
At least not as long as Tokyo is in the league.
Gammo: Fiction
They have a chance, but it's not a legitimate chance in my opinion. Tokyo has tanked the season, on purpose, for plans of a better tomorrow. I feel the Swingers will bring something to the table in the second half of the season and we'll see them finishing in the bottom half of the league, but don't be surprised if they move up to 9th or 10th. They've got the core players to do it with: Vlad, Sheets, Wood, Buehrle, Varitek, and Clement. They won't be the worst team in the league, not this year anyway.
Fact or Fiction: The Hispanics will miss the playoffs this year.
Snark: Fiction
And that’s not really a statement of praise for the Hispanics so much as a statement on how bad the teams below the Hispanics are. The only teams that have so much as a shadow of hope of overcoming Tijuana are Winston-Salem, Golden, and Bizton. Of those pretenders, only Winston-Salem probably has the ability to overtake Tijuana, though I don’t see it happening.
Tijuana, however, showed that it is nowhere near the elite teams of the EHCC with an 8-1 drubbing at the hands of the slumping Piglets last week. The match-up against a vulnerable Piglet squad coming off a thumping from Las Vegas was Tijuana’s opportunity to put some distance between themselves and their division rivals as well as show the rest of the league that last season’s playoff victory wasn’t a fluke. All they showed, however, was that it probably was a fluke, and that the Piglets are still far and away the class of the Western Division.
Does any of this mean they won’t beat out the Green Monsters for the final playoff spot? Not at all. It would take an amazing turn around from the Winston-Salem pitching staff (of whom only Kenny Rogers, Brett Myers, and, inexplicably, Cliff Lee have bothered to show up this season on the starting staff) as well as a much improved showing from the WS bats. I don’t see it happening. Look for Tijuana to slip in, unless Bizton is able to get healthy and make a run equal to their talent.
On a side note, the Golden Gryphons should be watching this collapse by Tijuana very, very closely. The Gryphons are following Tijuana’s example from last season and building to win now. They have traded away all their minor league picks and have a frighteningly old roster (Craig Biggio, Ken Griffey Jr., Jamie Moyer, and Orlando Hernandez to name a few) that is not built to win for more than a season or two. They should think very, very hard about selling a few of these veterans to contenders and stockpiling minor league picks (though that would be difficult, given the sudden youth surge in most every team’s front office).
Gammo: Fact
The smoke will clear and the mirrors will break for the Hispanics this year. They refuse to give up on their captain Mike Lowell at third base, which might turn out to be a huge mistake. Their biggest problem is that they don't have the pitching to win games. Their guy with the most wins has 8, and that's Jon Lieber (who's 35 years old and has an ERA of over 4.60). The next closest are three pitchers with 6 wins each. Derek Lowe is their leading K guy with 70 but the next closest is Freddy Garcia and Randy Wolfe (DL) with 61. The team's ERA average is not too bad though, but all the other categories are nothing to smile at. One bad week toward the end of the season in ERA will kill this team.
On offense the only players doing anything significant have been David Ortiz at first base, Jose Guillen in the outfield (who the Hispanics just recently traded for), and Brian Roberts at second base, who has cooled off dramatically in the last month hitting no home runs and only 6 runs and 6 RBI's. Garrett Anderson has almost 50 RBI's but his HR totals are lower than expected from the Tijuana front office.
I won't be surprised to see the Hispanics fall to 7th or even 8th place by the end of the season. But watch out, they'll tear through the consolidation bracket playoffs.
Fact or Fiction: As GM Jack Reed recently said, "In 3 years, the EHCC will have about 8-9 teams that have a legitimate shot at winning the title."
Snark: Fiction
That’s a lot of teams that could possibly win a title. While I think that there will be more parity, I don’t think it will be Tagliabue-esque. Reed is basically saying that teams like Golden, Bizton, Winston-Salem, and Tokyo will be legitimate threats to Las Vegas and Weymouth in three years time, which is almost comical. While the gap will close, expect some contending teams to also drop off in that time, such as Bridgewater and Tijuana, who are doing a poor job of keeping an eye towards the future. With the exception of the Weasels, each of the top 5 teams is doing a great job stockpiling talent for the future on their active roster while also building through the draft (Las Vegas is the only one of the four without at least 3 picks in the upcoming minor league draft).
With all that working against parity, I just can’t see that many teams having legitimate shots at the title.
Gammo: Fiction
There might be 6 or 7...but not 8 or 9. There are just not enough GM's in the league that care enough to help their team win, neither now or in the future. Not enough teams willing to part with their good players in order to build for the future. Only two teams have shown they are willing to do that (Rockets of 2003 and 2004 and Omyoujis of 2005). If more teams were willing to take their course and jet off their 2 or 3 really good players for prospects, young talent, or draft picks, there would be more teams in contention in the next 3 years. But that just hasn't seemed to happen yet. The 6 teams that will have a shot at a title in 3 years will be the Doggs, Rockets, Piglets, Shaddupu, Hispanics, and Gryphons.
Fact or Fiction: It is a sellers' trade market.
Snark: Fiction
Judging by the flurry of activity on the trading block and subsequent lack of movement, I find it hard to say it is a seller’s market. Clearly everyone is looking to get younger, and, judging by last week’s postings, no one is looking to trade youth for immediate gain. This is largely due to the fact that the seller’s aren’t the teams you’d expect. Instead of the pretenders looking to unload veterans for youth, it is the contenders who are looking to get younger while also getting help immediately. If there are any non-contending teams looking to buy, they are in fantastic position to do so, making it very much a buyer’s market, albeit the traditional buyers are actually sellers.
I think that this role reversal is largely due to the foresight of the general managers in the top spots; these GMs are looking to keep winning games while also getting younger and winning games in the future. However, as they are finding out, it doesn’t really work that way.
Gammo: Fact
One main reason for this is what I had mentioned earlier about the teams with a few good players not willing to give them up for multiple draft picks or prospects. Another is the human element in fantasy baseball. A lot of GM's get attached to their players, no matter how good or bad they actually are. GM Howe Dogg refuses to consider Curt Schilling in a trade, whether he's at his best or on the DL, because he wants Schilling to retire a Dogg (Schilling is the only player on the Doggs' roster to have played for them since the team was founded in 2000). The Hispanics refuse to give up on Mike Lowell even though he's batting a dismal .223 with only 3 home runs and 27 RBI's. Even teams that don't have a chance to make the playoffs tend to hold onto their players even if they shouldn't. Even if it'll hurt their team in the long run. This is the main reason it is, and will be in the future, a sellers' market.
Pedro Gammo and Jayson Snark write for EHSPN.com. John Krak was designated for assignment, and is rumored to be signing with Rakeville Sports Tonight by the end of the week.
