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EHCC Fact or Fiction
Who's in, who's out, and who needs to make a move
By John Krak and Jayson Snark / EHSPN.com
Fact or Fiction: After this week, the standings will be an accurate reflection of what we can expect for the second half of the season.
Krak: Fact
Not only will it be what we can expect, there's a good chance it'll be the exact standings at the end of the regular season. Despite two or three surprises, the teams that are supposed to win have been winning, and the teams that are supposed to lose have been losing. It's a beautiful thing in sports when a team can win on paper, and also on the field.
One exception, of course, has been the Piglets who have struggled with inter-division games. They're 4-0 against Western Division teams, as they should be, but they've had trouble with the likes of Weymouth, Bridgewater, and Las Vegas. These teams were supposed to be Quebec City's equals, not their superiors.
Snark: Fact
I think that, assuming that Tijuana and Quebec City play an even match-up and remain 5,6,(in some order) the six teams currently in possession of playoff spots will remain playoff teams in the season’s second half. However, I do think the order will be shaken up, perhaps violently. Quebec City is not a borderline playoff team in regards to talent—expect them to wake up in the second half of the season and storm up the ladder.
Additionally, the top two teams in the league, Weymouth and Las Vegas, have proven to be much more vulnerable this year than in recent years. While they are winning, their margins of victory have not been quite as decisive as in years past. I think there is a distinct possibility that we could have a dark horse regular season champion, say, Bridgewater or Rakeville, or even Quebec City if they can pull a 180. With the exception of Tijuana (who doesn’t have the pitching), each team in the top 6 has enough talent to contend for the regular season title. Will they? Unlikely. But I do think we’ll see some shake up in the top 6 in the season’s second half.
Fact or Fiction: There are no compelling Week 11 Match-Ups.
Krak: Fiction
There are two, and the obvious first would be Tijuana vs. Quebec City. Before the season began, you wouldn't dare compare these two. But, the Hispanics have been playing better than expected, while the Piglets have been playing worse. Quebec City has rolled over everyone else in the West, but a Tijuana win can give some credibility to an otherwise weak division.
The other good game, not as obvious, is Weymouth and Winston-Salem. While Shaddupu is tied for first in the league, W-S is fighting for their playoff lives. A win before the all-star break should help their cause a bit, but they'll need the likes of Jim Edmonds and Paul Konerko to step up and steal one or two offensive categories.
Snark: Fiction
Tijuana-Quebec City is a very compelling match-up, and by far the game of the week. It’s not exactly the marquee event league insiders anticipated when looking at the schedule during the pre-season, but it is still very much a compelling game.
Both teams came into the season with great expectations, but have endured a roller-coaster ride of a season, especially in the case of Tijuana. The Hispanics carried over last post-season’s momentum into first place for the first few weeks of the season. The wheels eventually came off, however, and now the Hispanics find themselves battling the Piglets and Green Monsters for the final playoff spot.
The Piglets find themselves in a situation that is, essentially, as must-win as a game can get at this point in the season. Still reeling from a defeat at the hands of rivals Las Vegas, Quebec City’s problems this season are well-documented. Plenty of star-power but not much to show for it in the standings. However, despite their problems, they have yet to lose a divisional match-up, and a convincing win this week over the Hispanics would not only help to re-establish them in the overall league standings, but would also go to great lengths to help them secure a third straight divisional title as well.
Fact or Fiction: The Stackerville Rockets of Rakeville are legitimate contenders.
Krak: Fact
I spoke with GM Jack Reed last night about their chances once playoff time rolls around, and they're very confident. Confidence is contagious, and the way their pitching staff has been playing, they have every right to think they can win it all.
Snark: Fact
The Rockets are a scary, scary team. They have always had the pitching to compete with the best of the league. However, in the last two years GM Jack Reed has quietly put together a very, very talented group of youngsters on offense as well. Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Hank Blalock, David Wright, and especially Miguel Cabrera (a player that former Mets GM Steve Phillips was recently quoted as saying has “hall of fame written all over him”), making the Rockets extremely formidable. They are maybe one or two offensive superstars away from being considered an elite team, as they still have small holes at shortstop and the outfield. However, this is a team that is built to contend not just now, but for many years to come. A very scary team, and no doubt a legitimate contender.
Fact or Fiction: The Quebec City Piglets will miss the playoffs.Krak: Fiction
The only team currently not in the top 6 that has a chance to make the playoffs is Winston-Salem. Quebec has gotten off to a slow start, but they are easily a playoff-caliber team. They have the offensive power, and eventually that pitching staff will come around. Tim Hudson, Jake Peavy, Jason Schmidt... there's no way this team cannot manage a wild card spot.
Everyone knows Las Vegas, Weymouth, and Bridgewater would be at the top of the leaderboard. Quebec has no doubt that they will make the playoffs, and once they do, its a whole new ballgame. There is no panic coming out of Canada.
Snark: Fiction
As mediocre as they’ve been lately, I just can’t picture a scenario where a roster as loaded as the Piglets could miss out on the playoffs. I’ve got to expect GM Pat Renaud to make an Epstein-ian move to shake this team out of its doldrums. However, if he doesn’t make a move, I’d still expect the Piglets to put something together in the second half of the season and make some kind of run. I don’t anticipate them finishing any lower than 4th place, and even that would surprise me a bit.
Fact or Fiction: There will be at least one blockbuster deal before the trading deadline.
Krak: Fact
But it's not going to be between two top teams. Each of the bottom 5 teams has one or two quality players that the rest of the league is drooling over. Eventually, one of these guys will flinch, send their superstar to a contender, and begin building for next season.
Las Vegas isn't shy about throwing trade offers around, but neither is Rakeville. All the Rockets are missing right now is that one offensive player to put them over the top, and make them a championship contender. When the trade deadline comes around, look for Reed to pull the trigger on what should be the biggest trade of the year.
Snark: Fact
The simple fact of the matter is, most teams in this league are either playing below their potential or above their heads. I think we’re all at least a little surprised that Bridgewater is in the thick of things and very surprised that Quebec has an outside chance of missing the playoffs. That being said, if teams like Bridgewater want to stay ahead of the game or finish even higher, they’ll probably have to make a move. And if teams like Quebec City or Winston-Salem want to push themselves closer to where they expect to be, they’ll also need to make a big move. Expect some of the more active league GMs (Reed, Renaud, Kantor, Dogg, etc.) to keep trying to improve their teams and pull the trigger on a blockbuster before July ends.
John Krak and Jayson Snark write for EHSPN.com. Pedro Gammo was lost at sea.
